It should come as no surprise, therefore, that this type of exacta betting is so popular. However, if you have ever participated in this type of pool, you will know how difficult it is to guess the outcome of a match. And if you’ve been involved in sports betting, we don’t need to tell you any more: exacta bets are a very rare and difficult thing to get right.
Without going any further, in the 2018/19 season, the most repeated result in La Liga was 1-1. It took place a total of 50 times, in a total of 380 matches, i.e. the most repeated result happened in 13% of the matches. In second place comes the 1-0, 10.7% (41 times), and in third place the 2-1 (10%, 38 times).
How to bet on a specific result?
To begin with, bets on the exact score should not be the basis of our bets, because of their low probability. They are simply a complement to other bets. We assume that the odds will be somewhat higher than what we have seen in the previous point, as the percentages are on the total and if we bet on it there will be a probability bias. That is, we believe that this score is somewhat more likely due to some factors, but what factors?
- By statistics: We can make an approximation with the average number of goals of the home team at home, and an average number of goals of the away team away. And filter them with the goals against.
- By history: We will not look at the history, but we will make an average of the last ones, and especially if it fits with the previous point it can be a good idea.
Betting on more than one specific result: Nothing prevents us from covering more than one score in a given match: 1-1, 1-0 and 2-1, for example. If the odds were $7, $7.50 and $7.50 and we played a total of $3 it would still be a good odds if we think these outcomes are feasible. But how can we see if it is profitable for us?
Calculate the profitability of an exacta bet
There is a very simple way to calculate if it is profitable to bet on an exact score, but it is not 100% accurate, as it is based on a subjective probability of the odds occurring. The odds formula for betting is derived by dividing 100% by the probability of the bet to get the odds. A bet that has a 50% chance of happening, for example, would pay out at $2. If it is slightly more remote (25%) it would be paid out at $4.
Bookmakers set odds based on these, but with your own predictions you can calculate the odds and find niches in this regard. But don’t think that this resource won’t require experience. A practical example? We believe that 1-0 has a 15% chance of occurring in a match, which in terms of odds would be approximately $6.6. If the result pays out at $7 it’s a good idea, if it pays out at $6 it’s not.
Don’t put all your eggs in the exacta betting basket.
It is not a good idea to put all your eggs in the exacta betting basket. If they come out, they will have a very interesting odds, but they are low stakes bets, so the percentage of your budget invested in them should be low as well. There is a formula to determine what % of our budget we can allocate to a specific bet, based on the stake, a target number where we set the probability:
- Stake= (Bankroll*Full stake*Stake value assigned)/10
For specific outcome bets this stake will be low. For example, a Barça win against Betis at Camp Nou would have a stake of 7 or 8, but a 2-0 win would have a stake of 2 or 3. With the same full stake (10% for example), and a bankroll of 100%, we will go from betting 6/8$ ideally to 1/2$.
Conclusions on betting on a specific result
If you’ve stuck it out this far, the conclusions about this type of betting will be very clear: you should only place them occasionally, if you know the numbers behind them very well and/or as a complement to other types of safer and/or less volatile bets. However, if you find a vein… go for it! These bets will also require patience, as many times you won’t win… however, if you win one in four or five times, you’ll get your money’s worth (these odds rarely go below $6.50 and can easily go up to $7/8).